CME Scoreboard

Prediction for CME (2023-12-14T17:38:00-CME-001)

NASA GSFC M2M ENLIL settings:
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: low2 (256x30x90)
Ambient settings: a4b1
Ejecta settings d4t1x1
WSA version: 2.2
GONG: mrzqs
cormode: single


Please enter the full notification:

## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CMEs update (OSIRIS-APEX, Psyche, Solar Orbiter, STEREO A, Missions Near Earth)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2023-12-15T05:57:08Z
## Message ID: 20231215-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.


## Summary:

Update on CME with ID 2023-12-14T17:38:00-CME-001 (see notification 20231214-AL-007), now simulated with CMEs 2023-12-13T15:05:00-CME-001, 2023-12-14T07:00:00-CME-001, 2023-12-14T08:36:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20231214-AL-008). Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CMEs may affect OSIRIS-APEX, Psyche, Solar Orbiter, and STEREO A. The leading edge of the CMEs will reach OSIRIS-APEX at 2023-12-15T09:47Z, Psyche at 2023-12-17T08:42Z, Solar Orbiter at 2023-12-16T23:48Z, and STEREO A at 2023-12-16T16:59Z (plus minus 7 hours). 

The simulation also indicates that the CMEs may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CMEs will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2023-12-16T18:51Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 5-7 (minor to strong).
   

Updated CME parameters are:

1: Start time of the event: 2023-12-13T15:05Z.

Estimated speed: ~616 km/s.

Estimated opening half-angle: 27 deg.

Direction (lon./lat.): 59/8 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.

Activity ID: 2023-12-13T15:05:00-CME-001


2: Start time of the event: 2023-12-14T07:00Z.

Estimated speed: ~684 km/s.

Estimated opening half-angle: 37 deg.

Direction (lon./lat.): 83/-30 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.

Activity ID: 2023-12-14T07:00:00-CME-001


3: Start time of the event: 2023-12-14T08:36Z.

Estimated speed: ~517 km/s.

Estimated opening half-angle: 13 deg.

Direction (lon./lat.): 50/-18 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.

Activity ID: 2023-12-14T08:36:00-CME-001


4: Start time of the event: 2023-12-14T17:38Z.

Estimated speed: ~1081 km/s.

Estimated opening half-angle: 49 deg.

Direction (lon./lat.): 33/-4 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.

Activity ID: 2023-12-14T17:38:00-CME-001


Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CMEs: 2023-12-13T15:05:00-CME-001, 2023-12-14T07:00:00-CME-001, 2023-12-14T08:36:00-CME-001, 2023-12-14T17:38:00-CME-001):

http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231213_205800_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231213_205800_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231213_205800_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231213_205800_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231213_205800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231213_205800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231213_205800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231213_205800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231213_205800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Psyche_timeline.gif


## Notes: 

This CME event (2023-12-14T08:36:00-CME-001) is associated with an M5.8 flare from AR 3514 (N05W50) with ID 2023-12-14T07:11:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2023-12-14T07:44Z (see notifications 20231214-AL-002, 20231214-AL-003).

This CME event (2023-12-14T17:38:00-CME-001) is associated with an X2.8 flare from AR 3514 (N05W54) with ID 2023-12-14T16:47:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2023-12-14T17:02Z (see notifications 20231214-AL-005, 20231214-AL-006).


SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s


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